Charlotte Street Partners

DAILY BRIEFING

DAILY BRIEFING

The great homecoming

Written by Ralitsa bobcheva, associate 
Edited by Adam Shaw, associate partner
20 April 2021

Good morning,

Last year, shortly before the first lockdown began in the UK, I returned to my home country to fight the pandemic blues with homemade kozunak and regular trips to the Bulgarian countryside. A few months later I returned to the UK, but many Bulgarian migrants decided to remain at home.
 
One estimate has suggested that at least 10% of Bulgaria’s returnees are braced to stay home for good. They are not alone. When Covid-19 struck Europe last year, many eastern Europeans living in the UK returned home to discover more economically and socially advanced countries than the ones they had left years ago.  
 
While lack of accurate data makes predicting the scale of any exodus of EU nationals on the UK economy difficult, the impact of it is gradually becoming evident. 
 
The challenge is most pronounced in the hospitality sector, particularly in London. On Sunday, hospitality business owners reported that as they started to recall furloughed staff in preparation for the reopening of outdoor spaces in England, they discovered that many didn’t want to return.
 
Brexit is not the only driver of this trend, but it is certainly a key one. Earlier this month, the FT Magazine reported on a rapid reversal of two decades of EU migration as a result of Brexit uncertainty and the pandemic’s toll on job prospects.
 
One area that is set to be affected is healthcare, with more than half of EU doctors pondering the possibility of leaving the UK.
 
While increased investment in automation offers an alternative to EU migrant workers in some cases, it won’t remedy the potential loss of international talent central to the UK’s position as a global innovation hub.
 
Is the UK is losing its allure for the EU’s young people? In my own experience – one largely shaped by pre-Brexit Britain – the answer is no. Whether or not I’m in the minority remains to be seen.  

News

Culture secretary Oliver Dowden has vowed to do “whatever it takes” to stop English football clubs joining a breakaway European Super League. Addressing parliament, Dowden said that various options would be considered to block the new league, including using competition laws and changes to club ownership structures.
 
The International Energy Agency has warned that carbon emissions are expected to soar this year by the second biggest annual rise on record, as global economies pour stimulus cash into fossil fuels as part of the recovery from Covid-19. Surging use of coal is driving the rise in emissions, particularly in Asia and in the US.
 
The prime minister, Boris Johnson, is set to announce radical new climate change commitments this week, including cutting carbon emissions by 78% by 2035 – nearly 15 years earlier than previously planned. For the first time, the climate law is expected to cover international aviation and shipping.

Business and economy

The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in the three months to February, according to the latest official figures by the Office of National Statistics. The fall – down from 5% in the three months to January – came as the UK remained under tough lockdown restrictions for most of the reporting period.
 
A green stimulus plan could create more than 1.2m jobs within two years and more than 2.7m jobs during the next decade, according to a report by the Green New Deal UK non-profit group. Such a strategy would be focused on green and digital infrastructure, research and development, energy and care work.
 
The Treasury and Bank of England yesterday announced a joint task force to investigate the creation of a central bank digital currency, in a bid to future proof sterling against cryptocurrencies and boost the payments system. Commenting on the announcement, chancellor Rishi Sunak said that Britain “needed to go further” to be a leader in financial innovation. (£)

Columns of note

We have all experienced a product or service falling short of our expectations and having to pursue a complaint to resolve the issue. In City AM, Rocio Concha argues that a remedy when things go wrong already exists – the Alternative Dispute Resolution system – but for it to be more accountable and fairer for customers, government action is still required.
 
Recent events illustrate how independent journalism is in an increasingly precarious position in some parts of continental Europe. Drawing on recent examples, the Financial Times editorial board argues that this trend calls for a strategic intervention from the EU – one that recognises that the fight for  independent judiciary and that for media freedom go hand in hand.

Cartoon source: The New Yorker

Markets

What happened yesterday?

London stocks were down yesterday, with the FTSE 100 falling 0.28% to 7,000.08, and the FTSE 250 losing 0.14% to close at 22,490.86. Sterling had a more positive day, last advancing 1.06% against the dollar to $1.3979 and gaining 0.58% on the euro to €1.1618.
 
Wall Street’s three major indexes also closed in the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.44% to close at 34,050.27, the S&P 500 falling 0.6% to 4,160.56, and the Nasdaq Composite slipping 1.06%, to 13,903.66.
 
In company news:
 
Chicago-based carrier United Airlines reported a $2.4bn loss for the first quarter of the year due to a major drop in passenger numbers and rising fuel costs.

What’s happening today?

Finals
Filta group
Flowtech Fluid.

Interims
AB Foods

AGMs
Aberdeen Emic
Audioboom Grp.
Bbva Ord
Breedon

Franchise Brand
GlobalData
Herald
Porvair
Xp Power

UK economic announcements
(07:00) Unemployment Rate
(07:00) Claimant Count Rate

Int. economic announcements
(07:00) Producer Price Index (GER)
(07:00) GFK Consumer Confidence (GER)

Source: Financial Times

did you know

In research conducted for his book, Laughter: A Scientific Study (2000), gelotologist Robert Provine discovered that 80% of human laughter isn’t caused by anything funny. [Source: @qikipedia]

Parliamentary highlights

House of Commons

Oral questions
Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (including Topical Questions)
 
Ten Minute Rule Motion
Planning (Local Authority Housing Developments)
 
Legislation
Finance Bill Committee (Day 2)
 
Adjournment
Service medal for nuclear test veterans

House of Lords 

Oral questions
Transferring responsibility for gambling policy to the Department of Health and Social Care
 
Oral questions
National Marriage Week and the role of marriage in the development of policy
 
Oral questions
Supporting a 50:50 gender-balanced Parliament and amending male primogeniture
 
Oral questions
Reducing domestic air travel in the UK
 
Legislation
Air Traffic Management and Unmanned Aircraft Bill [HL] – consideration of Commons amendments
 
Legislation
Non-Domestic Rating (Public Lavatories) Bill – third reading
Lord Greenhalgh
 
Legislation
Fire Safety Bill – consideration of Commons amendments
 
Debate
Conduct Committee Report ‘Registration of members’ foreign interests: follow-up’ – motion to agree
 
Motion
Conduct Committee report ‘Registration of members’ foreign interests: follow-up’ – motion to return the report to the Committee for further consideration

Scottish Parliament 

The Scottish parliament is in recess ahead of the election on 6 May

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