On the 21^st of August, national headlines cheered at President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement that Turkey had “made the biggest discovery of natural gas in its history in the Black Sea”. He vowed to launch production by 2023, the 100th anniversary of the Turkish republic.
 
The discovery of some 320 billion cubic metres of natural gas was particularly welcome news for the country which has long been heavily dependent on foreign gas and oil imports. The diversification of its energy supplies would enable the country to meet close to 7% of its annual demand for natural gas and reduce its reliance on countries such as Russia and Iran.
 
Moreover, a potential reduction in the country’s energy import bill would be a much-needed respite to Turkey’s faltering economy. The lira has lost nearly a fifth of its value since the beginning of 2020. At the peak of the coronavirus between April and June, Turkey’s GDP shrank 11% – the largest decline in a series of declines since 1998. 
 
Still, financial markets have not shared Ergogan’s optimism. Following an initial rally on the news of the gas find, the lira slipped back. Industry experts are also sceptical. The main concern is that the president’s ambition to make the Black sea gas available by 2023 would be challenging given that extracting the hydrocarbons is both a timely and a costly enterprise. Some have noted that to meet Erdogan’s ambition, the country would need to partner with western companies. 
 
In today’s interdependent energy world, however, Turkey is growing more isolated. The gas find comes amid growing tensions between Turkey and a Greece-Cyprus alliance over maritime rights in the Mediterrenian. At the heart of the Athens-Ankara conflict is Turkey’s oil exploration in disputed waters in the eastern Mediterrenian, prompting France to increase its military presence in the region and Germany to intervene in a bid to prompt a peaceful dialogue. 
 
And while the new natural gas reserve may grant Turkey a level of energy independence, critics are wary that the country already benefits from the second cheapest natural gas in Europe which means that Turkey may have to sell its growing gas surplus. In a world of oversupply where energy is becoming more of an international tradable commodity, though, this could result in insufficient demand. 
 
To be a real game-changer for Turkey’s economy, then, the energy card requires more than a zero-sum game and political grandstanding from Erdogan’s side. It requires diplomacy and acknowledgement of the importance of transnational dependence to make investment-intensive projects like this gas discovery successful.