“Nicola Sturgeon’s handling of the pandemic has been no better than Boris Johnson’s.”
 
That was the message that Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer attempted to land in a briefing with Scottish journalists yesterday, in which he also attacked the SNP’s domestic record,  focussing on education, health and drug deaths.
 
His criticisms are not without merit. Scotland’s relative Covid figures are broadly in line with those in the rest of the UK. Shortly after Sturgeon became first minister in 2015, she asked to be judged on education, yet the attainment gap remained wide even before the pandemic. Accident and emergency department waiting times are at a record high, while Scotland’s drug deaths are the highest per capita in Europe and more than three-and-a-half times that of the rest of the UK – which Sturgeon herself described as “shameful”.
 
The problem, politically from a Labour perspective, is that these are not new issues. Indeed, they were all in play at the Scottish parliament election just six months ago, in which Labour lost seats and the SNP was returned to government for a fourth consecutive term.
 
With no sign of the SNP’s dominance of Scottish politics abating any time soon, Starmer will need to find a path to Downing Street without being able to lean on a cohort of 40-plus Scottish Labour MPs – as Tony Blair and Gordon Brown did – at the next general election.
 
While he’d be loath to admit it, Starmer would undoubtedly be making a call to Sturgeon for support in the event of a hung parliament. And in England, Starmer would likely also be relying on another yellow-branded party for help. In certain areas, the Lib Dems are far better positioned than Labour to win seats currently held by the Conservatives.
 
Seeking some comfort following their disappointing performance at the 2019 election, the Lib Dems were quick to highlight that they were now in second place in 91 constituencies, the majority of which were won by Conservatives. They have been buoyed since by their victory in the Chesham and Amersham byelection at which they overturned at huge Tory majority.
 
Analysis by The Times earlier this year found that the Conservatives are at risk of losing 23 seats in the south or east of England if the Liberal Democrat surge in Chesham & Amersham were to be repeated in a general election. Of course, it’s unlikely that the conditions of a byelection would be replicated at a general election. However, it illustrates where the Tories might be vulnerable.
 
A Lib Dem recovery that allowed the party to recapture at least some of the seats it lost in 2015 – a long shot though it may be – might contribute to Boris Johnson being deprived of another majority and offer Labour an opening.
 
Following the yellow brick road might not be Starmer’s preferred path, but at this juncture it would appear his most viable route to Downing Street.