THE SNP CAN’T RELY ON LABOUR’S FAILURES IF IT WANTS TO WIN IN 2026

John Cumming

Client manager

Last week was, perhaps, one of the best the SNP has seen in recent years.

In Glasgow, the party secured two significant council by-election victories, taking both seats from Labour. On the same day, police announced the conclusion of their inquiries into former first minister Nicola Sturgeon as part of the Operation Branchform investigation into party finances.

And to top it all off, a survey of business leaders in Scotland found that the SNP was trusted more than Labour to drive economic growth and investment.

This is echoed in public opinion polls, which have shown a consistent lead for the SNP over the past few months. However, the party would be wise not to rest on its laurels.

On Saturday, SNP members gathered in Perth for the party’s constitutional conference. The party faithful were in high spirits, with many feeling reassured by John Swinney’s steady leadership, improving opinion polls and four local by-election wins in a row. The purpose of the conference was to reshape the SNP’s internal structures and processes, harking back to a process overseen by Swinney when he led the party in the early 2000s, implementing reforms which set the SNP up for 18 years of almost continuous electoral success.

In his conference address, the first minister acknowledged that the party has been through tough times but said that “the SNP’s political thinking cap is back on”.

First minister John Swinney addressing SNP members in Perth

Senior insiders point to significant improvements within the party’s operations, with a sharper focus on message clarity and practical policy solutions.

On Swinney’s command, the SNP has been hammering Labour for its record in government thus far. This has been highly effective, and it’s a sure sign that the SNP is back on the front foot.

Most surveys of voting intention put the SNP at around 34% on the constituency vote, however, this is only a modest 4% increase from its general election performance when Labour emerged victorious. It’s worth remembering that Labour was comfortably ahead of the SNP in most polls ahead of the 2011 Holyrood election where Alex Salmond won a majority – proof that anything can change, especially this far out.

While the SNP has regained some ground, its poll lead is largely thanks to the collapse in Labour’s support, driven by decisions taken in Westminster on issues such as winter fuel payments, compensation for women affected by state pension inequality, disability benefits, and Rachel Reeves’ inability to deliver much needed economic growth. The rise of Reform is also a key issue, with Farage taking support from all parties, albeit much more from Labour than the SNP.

With the 2026 Scottish Parliament election approaching, scrutiny of the SNP’s performance will intensify. To secure a fifth term in power, the party must present a compelling agenda for enhancing public services, raising living standards, and driving economic growth.

Swinney understands this and given the party’s failure to drive progress in key policy areas, he knows the SNP will need to work hard to convince the public that it can deliver.

At its annual national conference in October, the SNP will be discussing new policy proposals for its 2026 manifesto. The party has signalled its willingness, and desire, to reach out beyond the bubble to test its ideas, and source new solutions.

We’re supporting clients to get to know the people, from all parties, who will be leading the big debates over the next five years. Please get in touch to discuss how we can help your organisation to shape what comes next.