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Steve Bray, the “Stop Brexit Man,” spent years tormenting Tory MPs.
In his bright blue outfit, he shouted anti-government slogans outside Parliament, drowned out Rishi Sunak’s election announcement to the soundtrack of D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better, and even earned himself a ban from every street around Whitehall and parliament. Yet even Bray has given up on them. His verdict: the Tories are “an irrelevance”.
That line captures the political mood. The latest YouGov MRP poll puts the Conservatives on just 45 seats, barely ahead of the SNP and well behind the Lib Dems. Reform UK, once written off as a protest vehicle, is now topping the polls and being spoken of as a potential party of government.
Keir Starmer’s speech at this week’s Labour conference reflected the shift: he focused his fire on Nigel Farage, joking to his audience: “Conservatives, remember them?” The party once hailed as the “natural party of government” now stares at political extinction.
Kemi Badenoch inherited a poisoned chalice; there’s no doubt about that. Any leader would find it hard to recover from the worst Tory defeat in modern history, losing 251 seats. But she was chosen by party members to stop the slide, unsettle Starmer, and win back disillusioned voters. Instead, she has become a symbol of missed opportunity. A parody X account, “Kemi Countdown,” set up by disillusioned Tory staffers, tracks the days until her leadership can be challenged (November 3), while her own team quietly speculates about who might come next.
In Scotland, the Conservatives hold the role of official opposition but leave little impression. With the election looming next year, the party polls in fourth place. Russell Findlay is personable, but he lacks the will to lead a revival. Even his predecessor, Douglas Ross, has more success generating headlines these days. After May, Findlay is likely to stand down as leader, leaving the Scottish Tories with some serious soul searching to do.
Still, it would be premature to write off the Tories entirely – even if it feels as though they’ve given up on themselves. That YouGov poll was only a snapshot of a hypothetical election tomorrow, which isn’t going to happen.
The key point – and the potential game changer – is that while Reform has momentum right now, it remains untested in power.
Last May, Reform won almost 700 council seats, taking control of 12 councils and two mayoral authorities. The party will soon need to answer for its decisions and prove it is more than a talking shop – a responsibility that brings scrutiny, tough choices, and the risk of missteps. Wait until the first major corruption, abuse, or expenses scandal hits, and see how they fare.
At the centre of it all is Nigel Farage, Reform’s main attraction and the figure who gives the party its profile and energy. Without him, it’s fair to ask whether Reform would even exist in its current form. Farage himself is not immune to the perils of high visibility. He could lose interest, walk away, or become embroiled in a scandal. In many ways, Reform’s rise is tied to a single personality, a fact that could be both its greatest strength and its most serious vulnerability.
If Reform falters, its momentum could collapse as quickly as it rose. And plenty of people – including the Tories – seem to be holding their breath, waiting for that moment.
Others, however, are not waiting for Reform to stumble. Jacob Rees-Mogg’s presence at the Reform conference illustrated the scale of the threat and the opportunity he sees. His appeal for unity across the right underlined the urgency of Conservative renewal. A leader with vision could bring back disgruntled figures, reclaim authority, and rebuild relevance. The opportunity exists, but it sits on thin ice. A failure of the Tories to act decisively risks handing Reform permanent dominance.
The party has survived scandal, division, and electoral collapse before. Reform’s rise may grab headlines, but it is far from tested in power. Momentum alone does not win elections, and complacency now will make Bray’s verdict of “irrelevance” look like reality. The Conservatives still have the experience, resources, and opportunity to rebuild – but only if they seize the moment.