View from the Street: Scotland’s Political Crossroads – Lessons from 2024 That Will Shape the Year Ahead
Published
Aoife Hollywood
As critics are unveiling their year-end rankings celebrating the best in movies, music, TV, and books, it’s fitting to reflect on the defining political events of the year and consider what lies ahead in 2025.
A Collapsed House
Humza Yousaf’s resignation in April, triggered by the collapse of the Bute House Agreement and an impending no-confidence vote, plunged the SNP into crisis. Once united under Nicola Sturgeon, the party spent much of the year consumed by internal divisions, political instability, and growing public disillusionment. As a result, it faced its worst electoral showing since 2010.
After 17 years of finger-pointing at Westminster and vilifying opponents, the SNP’s playbook has run its course. John Swinney, now forced to adapt, has embraced collaboration and consensus. With no majority to rely on, he has little choice if he hopes to pass any legislation, most importantly, his budget. A deal with the Conservatives, pushing for billion-pound tax cuts? Not happening. And with Labour’s eye on the next election, they’re unlikely to be in the mood to help Swinney over the line. That leaves only the Greens or Lib Dems, something which Shona Robison appeared to realise as she delivered a budget that catered to their priorities: ferries, mental health, dentistry, and green policies.
Yet, for all the SNP’s troubles, there are flickers of optimism. A Sunday Times poll shows the SNP on track for a fifth term in power. But survival depends on abandoning divisive rhetoric and offering a bold, credible vision for Scotland—one that rebuilds trust and rekindles hope.
The stakes are high. If the party descends into more internal turmoil, its grip on Bute House could slip. Frustration with the old guard is palpable, and attention will inevitably turn to Stephen Flynn. His ruthless political instincts are no secret – just ask Ian Blackford. Whether or not Flynn steps into the Holyrood spotlight could reshape the party’s fortunes.
From Victory to Vulnerability: Labour’s Narrow Window in Scotland
Despite a win reminiscent of Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, Sir Keir Starmer’s government has had its honeymoon period cut short. Just five months in, a series of communication blunders have allowed controversies like freebie-gate to take hold, damaging the government’s credibility. Betting odds on Starmer’s tenure are shortening, with speculation over his future.
Meanwhile, Anas Sarwar’s prospects in Scotland aren’t much brighter, with Labour forecast to win just one more seat than the Scottish Conservatives in 2026. Analysis shows the SNP remaining resilient, bolstered by growing corporate Scotland support, while Starmer’s Westminster struggles reverberate north of the border.
Is the UK government jeopardising Scottish Labour’s chances of a 2026 resurgence? Party insiders think so. But Sarwar’s future is inextricably tied to the UK party, so any attempt to distance himself from the party—like his reversal on the winter fuel payment—may prove to be a futile strategy.
Scottish Labour must also contend with the fact that voters are still unsure about its policy vision for Scotland. To make an impact, the party must demonstrate what sets it apart—beyond its stance on the union—especially since it frequently aligns with the SNP on controversial policies like the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, rent controls, and the Hate Crime Bill.
Reform UK: A New Wildcard
Reform is often dismissed as an English issue with little relevance to Scotland, yet the party still secured 7% of the vote here, outpacing the Greens. If Reform hadn’t contested Aberdeenshire North and Moray East—where they saw their strongest performance—Douglas Ross would likely have returned to Westminster. But Reform’s momentum doesn’t stop there, polls now show double-digit support. And if Elon Musk’s donation materialises, this could be just the beginning of a major headache for Scotland’s political parties.
What makes Reform disruptive is its ability to siphon votes across the political spectrum – a threat all parties would do well to take seriously.
However, perhaps most at risk are the Scottish Conservatives, a challenge they appear to recognise. Since Russell Findlay took over the reins, he has focused on promoting his “common sense Conservative values” in an effort to win back disillusioned voters now flirting with Reform. The SNP, too, seems alert to Reform’s rise as John Swinney has pledged to address the concerns driving voters toward the party.