Anna Dickens
Two years ago today (15 May), the Scottish Government declared a housing emergency.
More than 10,000 children were in temporary accommodation, housing supply was in decline, and capital investment had stagnated, in large part due to damaging policy decisions.
It would be naive to believe those ills could be remedied within two years, but an emergency requires urgent action and, on this sombre anniversary, the least we should expect is that things have started moving in the right direction.
Spoiler alert: they haven’t. In fact, the situation has demonstrably worsened.
Between March 2024 and December 2025 – the most relevant and recent quarterly data – new home completions fell by 12% and new starts by 9%. In the social sector, the picture is more dire: completions are down by nearly a third (28%) and new starts declined by 12%.
Those children living in temporary accommodation? Still there. Still waiting. And their number is growing, up to 10,480 at last count.
Some of the policy decisions that depleted our housing pipeline came from an admirable place, a desire to make housing more affordable. But we all know what they say about good intentions.
Rent controls ultimately deter investors and suppress supply, making affordability worse, not better, over time. Compassionate policy design must follow the evidence, however inconvenient those truths.
Unfortunately, the recent election campaign offered more of the same. The SNP committed to introducing a first-time buyer fund that will gift would-be homeowners £10,000 toward a deposit on their first home, at a yearly cost of £100m.
It’s a curious choice given the breadth of evidence available on the unintended consequences and muted impact of the UK government’s Help to Buy scheme, introduced at Westminster by the Conservatives in 2013. A House of Lords report found the scheme pushed up house prices, an inevitable consequence of stimulating demand without a commensurate increase in supply.
Last month, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) concluded that the scheme had disproportionately benefited high earners and did little to increase affordability for those on lower incomes.
The IFS found people looking to buy a first home were more constrained by their incomes than by the deposit, so the primary legacy of the £29bn policy intervention was, in essence, to help people who were always going to be able to buy a home do it slightly sooner.
Should we spend £100m a year in Scotland to accelerate home purchases for high earners while inflating prices for everyone else?
The other main SNP housing policy to keep an eye on is the introduction of the new quango, More Homes Scotland. Detail on what it will do and how it will operate is scarce but that could mean there is opportunity to influence its design for the better.
This week our newly elected parliamentarians have descended on Holyrood, 64 of them for the first time. Each of those new MSPs represent people who are struggling to find an affordable home, children who are homeless, young people who live at their family home into their thirties, out of necessity rather than choice. Each of them has an opportunity to be part of the solution.
Back in May 2024, the Scottish Government didn’t want to declare a housing emergency. The SNP was vulnerable following the collapse of the Bute House Agreement and opposition parties worked together to apply pressure.
As we enter what we expect to be a minority government, there is an opportunity for well-educated and collaborative opposition parties to work together and with government. Equitable access to an affordable home isn’t a partisan issue and could be a model for how this rainbow parliament should govern.
Ultimately, Scotland’s housing emergency will not be resolved by a declaration, a target, or a well-meaning manifesto commitment. It will be resolved by homes – built, let, sold, and occupied. The people and organisations that make that happen – every element of the housing sector and supply chain – must demand progress and be relentless in their engagement, providing the education and solutions our politicians need.
Otherwise, we will be having the same conversation on this anniversary next year, by which time even more children will be living in limbo and our housing pipeline will be further depleted.