Rachel Watson
There are not many who would have predicted a Labour victory in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
Ever since last year’s general election, the party has been on the defensive, struggling with plunging support in the polls. At the same time, John Swinney was (apparently) stabilising a lurching SNP and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK was gaining traction with voters disenchanted by the mainstream.
And over the last week, Labour’s candidate Davy Russell was dubbed the “Invisible Man” by opponents after refusing to take part in STV’s live debate. A toe-curling interview with STV’s Colin McKay added to the sense the Russell wasn’t up to the task.
But against this difficult backdrop, Russell emerged victorious and leader Anas Sarwar has secured another seat at Holyrood – taking the constituency from the SNP and giving his supporters hope that a Scottish Parliament election victory may not be completely out of his grasp.
It was a good night for Labour, an important victory, and a big win at a time when many had written them off once again in Scotland.
The question now is whether Sarwar can use the by-election to drive momentum, galvanise his support and reach out to voters who have been left disappointed by the decisions made by Sir Keir Starmer since he took office last July.
Whether this is a genuine Labour breakthrough or a vote for a respected local candidate who lives in his constituency, is uncertain. But Sarwar must grasp this momentum – real or not – and use the summer to wrest attention from Reform and set the agenda on his own party’s terms.
Drilling into the Hamilton results, they do not indicate that Labour has significantly outperformed. It only won by a margin of 602 votes – followed very closely by the SNP and Reform UK.
Indeed, national polling shows Labour down two points from the 2021 Holyrood election. The by-election found a drop of two points in the constituency since the vote.
What this election result does show though is that despite the narrative that John Swinney has stabilised the SNP, the difficult times for them do not appear to be over.
The by-election was called following the death of Christina McKelvie MSP who passed away earlier this year. Katy Loudon – an experienced election candidate – was favoured to win.
But rather than holding on to the seat, the SNP saw its vote share plunge by nearly 17 points since the 2021 Holyrood election.
The result knocks a massive hole in Swinney’s narrative that only the SNP could stop Reform UK, and it was very much a two-party race.
Instead, what this result suggests is that Scotland is in a three-party race between Labour, the SNP and Reform UK.
Nigel Farage’s party managed to secure over 7,000 votes in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse – with its vote share up by more than 26 points.
And while the Conservatives suffered a terrible evening, they weren’t the only ones to lose voters to Reform UK with Labour and the SNP leaking support too.
We are just 11 months from the Holyrood election. To even have a chance of winning in May 2026 Scottish Labour had to win last night. And they did.
But the results show there is no easy route to Bute House for any party. And while Sarwar might be celebrating today, both he and Swinney will be looking at the many lessons they need to learn before next May.